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2025 Calendars are here.

Nov 25, 2024  

CORN: Despite the lower close, Managed Money was a net buyer of corn futures today. Export values held steady and barge freight rates were steady to firmer. River bids firmed up while WCB processors weakened. The holiday-shortened weak puts processors at a disadvantage as the trucking supply shrinks and the low prices reduce producer selling even further than usual. Export inspections remain strong as the USDA reports .9 mmt inspected last week vs .87 mmt the week before and vs .42 mmt last year. 

The South American weather pattern continues to support the corn crops there. Brazil’s 1st crop is 70% planted which is behind the average by 8%. Modest to material rains circulate the corn belt the next 10 days. Argentina had 50% coverage of modest rains over the weekend and see material rains rotate through the corn belt for the next 10 days. Despite the optimistic weather pattern, Brazil’s corn offers remain above that of the US and enough to direct import business to the US into Asia.

BEANS: The soybean complex was a mix of forces with much of the speculative trade happening in the oilshare spread. Near equal levels of buying and selling pursued meal and oil with oil getting the sell and meal the buy.  Questions arise about the tightness of the US market with the biofuel policy on the line and Argentina’s aggressive return to the product export market.  It’s a well-tread path to discuss the prospects of the US bio credits and mandates and how they rest on the point of a pen.

Trump nominated his candidate for Secretary of Ag, for which the industry was taken off balance by her nomination. She was not at the top of any of the major lists the press had circulated up unto this point. She has a personal background in Ag but not a professional one, but neither did the current Sec of Ag when he began.

With no history of where she will come down on in policy nor her thoughts on carbon/climate policy, the Trade is no closer to knowing what will come of the important items of concern in 2025. As discussed in the corn section Brazil’s weather is supportive of the current soybean crop. The country is 88% planted which is slightly ahead of average for this week. Values offered at port continue to defer to the US for competitive business landed Asia. US soybean inspections seasonally declined this week to 2.1 mmt but outperformed the same week ago by .5 mmt. MYTD inspections are running 2.1 mmt ahead of last year.

WHEAT: The Trade expects NASS to show an improved US winter wheat crop. ATGs are 2% better than last week following the soil moisture profile in the plains. Winter wheat plantings are expected to hit 97% as of Sunday. US export inspections returned to their 5-year average with the USDA reporting .36 mmt loaded vs .29 mmt last year. MYTD loadings are running 2.5 mmt ahead of last year.  Russian offers started the week unchanged from Friday. IKAR increased its Russian grain production output for 2024 by .5 mmt to 125 mmt without breaking out the number for wheat. The strength in EU and USD against the Russian RU is also swaying the advantage further toward Russia. The Ruble has lost 3% of its value since last Thursday.